The National Intelligence Council's Global Trends Alternative Worlds report , released last December explores many of these trends in detail, some already. Global Trends Demographic and Environmental Changes and the Future of Security. Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Global Trends Alternative Worlds a publication of the National Intelligence Council Global Trends OR OF NAT IO CT Alternative RE NA F THE DI L.
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Global Trends Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence I would like to point out several innovations in Global Trends Download Global Trends Download via soundofheaven.info - Button · Download via iTunes - Button · Download Via Scribd - Button · Download PDF via soundofheaven.info Global Trends Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence soundofheaven.info GenderGAP Report pdf.
You are commenting using your Google account. The criteria that define an Mostly urban urban area were selected by individual states. Muslim women are using societies. IT devices will play an increasing to one hundredth of the current price, and a network role in the fight against corruption and government efficiency increase by more than a factor of India is now coming up to theirs I think.
The gap almost certainly will remain of the impact of such technologies on governance. For example, an innovative program in wireless communications smartphones are also western Kenya to distribute water filters and stop the likely to accelerate the empowerment of individuals, use of contaminated water involved using smartphones introducing new capabilities to the developing to monitor changes in behavior.
Such By we expect to see continued progress on technologies will reduce the urban-rural split that health—including extending the quality of life for characterized first-wave technologies, especially in those aging see discussion on pages Even developing countries. AIDS appears to have hit its global peak— ideologies of the globalizing West will be a core around 2 million deaths per year—in Great challenge for many rapidly developing societies, strides are being made toward wiping out malaria, affecting prospects for global and domestic governance but past periods of progress have sometimes given and economic performance through The persistence, if not growth number from noncommunicable causes such as from and deepening, of religious identity, growing heart disease will cross over in about With the to increased economic output and greater consensus dramatic reduction of infant and child mortality, due to on global governance issues.
Religion— LANDSCAPE especially Islam—has strengthened as a key force A world of surging middle classes, varying economic in global politics owing to global increases in potentials, and more diffuse power will also exhibit democratization and political freedoms that have an increasingly diverse ideological landscape.
Examples include a started abruptly without warning, swept through prion disease in cattle that jumped in the s to populations globally with ferocious velocity, and left cause variant Creutzeldt-Jacob disease in humans, considerable damage in their wake. In fact, such a slow-moving pathogen with previously rare crossovers.
No one can predict pandemic potential may have already jumped into which pathogen will be the next to start spreading humans somewhere, but the pathogen and disease to humans, or when or where such a development manifestations may not be recognized yet.
An easily transmissible novel respiratory pathogen New discoveries in the biological sciences hold that kills or incapacitates more than one percent promise for more rapidly identifying pathogens and of its victims is among the most disruptive events developing targeted therapeutics and vaccines; possible.
Unlike other disruptive global events, such however, such advances may be inadequate to an outbreak would result in a global pandemic that keep up with the threat. Drug-resistant forms of directly causes suffering and death in every corner diseases previously considered conquered, such as of the world, probably in less than six months.
Advances in genetic engineering by may immunity, causing political and economic upheaval, enable tens of thousands of individuals to synthesize and determining the outcomes of wars and and release novel pathogens, compounding the civilizations. Examples include the Black Death already formidable naturally occurring threat. The ability of religious organizations to define norms for governance in religious terms and to mobilize followers on economic and social justice issues during a period of global economic upheaval is likely to raise the prominence of religious ideas and beliefs in global politics.
In this new era, religious ideas, actors, and institutions are likely to be increasingly influential among elites and publics globally. Moreover, many developing and fragile states—such as in Sub-Saharan Africa—face increasing strains from resource constraints and climate change, pitting different tribal and ethnic groups against one another and accentuating the separation of various identities.
Ideology is likely to be particularly powerful and socially destructive when the need for basic resources exacerbates already existing tensions between tribal, ethnic, religious, and national groups. Urbanization— once expected to encourage secularization—is contributing instead, in some settings, to increased expressions of religious identity.
Immigrants to cities— mostly Muslims in Europe and Russia, for example— are coalescing along religious lines. Urbanization is driving demands for social services provided by religious organizations—an opening that Islamic and Christian activists have been effective in using to bolster religious cohesion and leverage. In a tectonic shift, China is seen to be today. China alone will probably The total size of the Chinese working-age population have the largest economy, surpassing that of the will peak in and decline from million United States a few years before Also of significance, India will most likely continue to consolidate its power advantage relative to Just as important, the economies of other non-Western Pakistan.
Individually most of these countries will remain second-order players In Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Nigeria have the because China and India are so large. However, as a potential to approach or surpass South Africa in collective group, they will begin to surpass Europe, overall national power, but the key will be better Japan, and Russia in terms of global power by Vietnam benefits from a steady growth EU in global power by When this second in GDP per capita while Thailand has been subject tier is combined with the non-Western giants of to erratic, drop-and-surge GDP per-capita-growth China and India, the shift of power from the West patterns.
In Europe, Germany is likely more dynamic will occur outside of Asia, where China to remain the leader of the other 26 EU countries and India are already consolidating their regional because of its economic growth prospects, but will positions.
In be challenged by an aging population. By Russia faces a steep population drop—about 10 million a Modeling suggests that China will surpass the US in if GDP is people—a greater decline than any other country measured at purchasing power parity PPP and sometime near during that time frame. Although MER- economic growth rates and immigration, Russia could based measures are important for trade and financial analysis, PPP-based measures probably provide better insight into fundamental economic retain its current global power share.
Recently, we have contributed to the development of a new global power index, which incorporates a broader array of elements relevant to 21st-century power, including health, education, and governance. Using the new, broader power index, Europe EU ranks much closer to the US than in the previous index.
Using either index, the aggregate power of developing states overtakes that of all developed states, including the US, by The share of global power held by the EU, Japan, and less so Russia decreases under both indices. A number of countries will pass through are likely to remain highly vulnerable during the inflection points in the period out to These countries will most likely power will either level off or the rate of increase of continue to have weak governance, security, and their global power will slow.
Not only China and economic performance while facing demographic and the United States, but also Europe, Japan, and Russia environmental challenges.
See chart on page It is calculated by weighted country memberships held by each country. It is calculated from GDP, population size, military in inter-governmental organization, the number of embassies that a spending and technology.
International Futures Model, University of Denver. Historically, the rate of 6 Malawi Malawi change has been far slower for transitions in the power Dem.
By , no country—whether the US, China, or any other 14 Niger Ethiopia large country—will be a hegemonic power. Enabled 15 Chad Bangladesh by communications technologies, power almost certainly will shift more toward multifaceted and Source: Sandia National Laboratories.
Leadership of such networks will be developing a Human Resilience Index HRI to a function of position, enmeshment, diplomatic skill, provide tools that help explore the links among and constructive demeanor. Networks will constrain human ecological conditions, human resilience, and policymakers because multiple players will be able to conflict. Power Cycle Theory an Instrument in the mortality and life expectancy.
Soft power relates to political, diplomatic, social, and cultural attainments and values that also garner influence and the capability to and resilience. Good intentions will not be enough.
One could tackling global challenges might become more anticipate a dual-pronged movement of more state vexing because of the multiplicity of actors, including regulation on bad actors—such as hackers—while nonstate ones, and their dissimilar views. Those countries to the northwest of the line see graphic on page 18 are punching above their weight in hard power.
In the next 20 years, we expect many of the middle powers to rise above the line as both their hard and soft powers increase. Factors used to determine diplomatic weight include intergovernmental and UN treaties to which the country is a party, and diplomatic connections and alliances. Considerable weight accrues to countries with both material and diplomatic power, such as the US and China, but such countries will be unlikely to get their way without state and nonstate partners.
Technology will continue to be the great leveler. As these mountains of data are used to improve knowledge of human motivations, non state actors such as private companies will be able to influence behavior on as large a scale as state actors. Enabled by communications technologies, power almost certainly will shift more toward multifaceted and amorphous networks composed of state and nonstate actors.
Just as governments are likely to come under growing pressure to become more accountable from a more highly connected citizenry, nonstate actors will have to prove their worth to the public by pointing Global Trends Countries that are amassing a large proportion of We believe that in the world of —a world in seniors face the possibility of slower aggregate GDP which the growing global population will have growth or stagnation.
These post-mature states will reached somewhere close to 8. These trends those families and taxpayers who support them. The are: Governments of post-mature countries water resources. The median age of almost all and slower aggregate GDP growth societies around the world is rising rapidly, except or stagnation.
For some OECD high-income countries will reach as a group low-fertility Western European countries that have a median age of Whereas in only rapid growth of these minorities could erode social the populations of Japan and Germany have matured cohesion and promote reactionary politics.
The countries with well-developed institutions to minimize populations of these countries will feature a large the negative impacts of aging are unknown. A second, more diffuse group of and losing some European ones to the post-mature youthful countries is projected to persist in the Middle category.
Along may prolong that bonus. Despite the fading of their the Pacific Rim, this challenging condition is expected demographic advantages, these countries will not yet to persist in East Timor, Papua New Guinea, and the have large proportions of seniors.
They will, however, Solomon Islands. South Asia, only Afghanistan is projected to remain youthful by However, the aging that will occur In the United States and Russia, the advance of among the large and growing populations in nearby the median age and an increase in the proportion Pakistan and India probably will mask youthful of seniors will proceed slowly. In the US, a high ethnic and regional populations that could remain a rate of immigration and a fertility level that is near security concern.
Youthful age structures are likely replacement are slowing aging.
In Pakistan and Afghanistan, the rates of that instead of aging, males especially are dying at a childbearing are probably greater than five children relatively young age—in their 50s instead of living into per woman among the Pushtun.
In India, where the their 60s and 70s as in other countries. Today more than 80 countries have populations with a median age of 25 years or less. As a group, these Kurdish fertility in southeastern Turkey appears countries have an over-sized impact on world affairs— to be stalled at about four children per woman. In since the s, roughly 80 percent of all armed civil Israel, the fertility of the diverse Ultra-Orthodox and ethnic conflicts with 25 or more battle-related Jewish minority remains above six children per deaths per year have originated in countries with woman.
The persistence of high rates of fertility and youthful populations. East into South and Central Asia. By , this arc will have contracted see map on page Due to fertility declines that are well under way today, the tally of countries with youthful populations is projected to fall to about 50 by We will not see the same high proportion of migrants as in the first industrial revolution, but male female international migration is set to grow even faster 5-yr groups than it did in the past quarter-century.
The factors promoting cross-border migration are likely to remain strong or intensify. These factors are globalization, disparate age structures across richer and poorer 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 countries, income inequalities across regions and Percentage of total population countries, and the presence of migrant networks linking sending and receiving countries. Climate-change-driven migration is likely to affect Africa and Asia far more than other continents 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 because of dependence on agriculture in Africa and Percentage of total population parts of Asia and because of greater susceptibility in Asia to extreme weather events.
Drought-driven Mature, migration will be a gradual phenomenon. Flood-driven migration will wipe out homes and infrastructures and significantly increase the perception of the risk of staying.
At A Critical Juncture, NIC , September , for further insights on migration and 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 the lack of global governance oversight.
We also benefited from an Atlantic Percentage of total population Council-hosted workshop on migration in Data and insights from workshop papers were extensively used in the formulation of this section.
Currently, the top ten countries hosting opportunities. In Germany, Africa—could roughly equal the entire volume of the number of young people age will fall by 25 such construction to date in world history, creating percent, or about 2. Many emerging countries, such as Brazil, or 3 million.
Even in the US, although the number China, and Turkey—whose youthful populations are of young people will grow slightly, their percentage declining—will attract migrants from low-income of the total population will decline from 14 to Brazil, China, and Turkey have already seen sharp Age and income disparities create a paradox.
One drops in fertility: The World blur. Countries may try to attract more highly skilled Bank estimates that a 3-percentage-point increase workers by offering permanent residents privileges, in the stock of migrants by would lead to a such as voting in local elections, formerly reserved for 0.
This is more than the gains will increase the capacity of countries to control from removing all remaining barriers to free trade. The Internet and to consider migration policy as part of an economic social media can also provide increased information growth strategy, particularly as competition grows for on conditions in receiving countries and ways to highly skilled employees.
China may see some increase better integrate migrants. Many gains from removing all remaining barriers countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, and to free trade. More people—particularly succeed in recipient countries. The rise of more global Nigeria is a good example of potential upside and labor markets will create the need for international downside risks from migration for many aspiring states.
The growing If it collects its demographic dividend in full, it could number of even medium-sized companies with see per capita incomes treble by , lifting 80 far-flung international interests and networks will be million people out of poverty. Part of that economic a pressure group for changing national policies.
The success would involve experiencing continued high dividing line between permanent residency, which levels of migration as young Nigerians immigrate to most migrants can qualify for, and citizenship— acquire or hone their skills abroad before returning Global Trends The extent of the flows—potentially of tens economic miracle at home.
Policy failure, in contrast, of millions of people from the poorest developing could lead to a demographic disaster, with economic countries to middle-income countries as well as to underperformance and enhanced risks of strife and rich developed countries—creates the potential for conflict, creating substantially increased incentives huge human rights abuses and exploitation.
Immigrant to migrate. Immigration such construction to date in world history, and border security is still largely—with the exception creating enormous opportunities for both of the Schengen area in continental Europe—seen as skilled and unskilled workers. According to the UN, between and , there will be an additional urban population History has repeatedly demonstrated the power of of million in China and million in India, migration.
At best, migration could help harmonize which will together account for 37 percent of the total the very different economic and demographic increase for urban population in Nine additional conditions that will be experienced by countries countries are projected to contribute 26 percent of as the world moves toward its peak population.
The countries are: Bangladesh, economic failure, not success—reemerging as both Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, a cause and result of conflict within and between Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the US.
In Africa, we expect urban formation and expansion Global Trends The criteria that define an Mostly urban urban area were selected by individual states.
Urban Global Trends In some smaller family sizes, and higher average educational studies these impacts have been detectable at distances attainment. The peri-urban or emissions of South Asia as a whole will double by Water is likely to be as as such areas provide cheaper land for housing and much of a challenge as energy for both giants. Metropolitan regions will spill over cities will need 94 billion liters of potable water that multiple jurisdictions creating mega-regions.
By MGI and others estimate will not be easily available. In many poor tri-national metro regions. Many transport infrastructures Cities have the potential to apply modern technologies also are inadequate to absorb growth in mid-sized and infrastructure: Roads are neither wide enough nor sufficiently are taking measures to reduce their carbon footprint maintained to absorb expanding traffic.
Still their growth will, we believe, promote substantial Urban centers are engines of productivity, generating environmental and resource pressures.
The growth roughly 80 percent of economic growth. Similarly, only a fraction of utility consumption in these regions is metered and paid for directly. We expect the next two decades to Global Trends Local police are likely to escalate their efforts to extend their powers into established squatter settlements in some countries— particularly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
However, for formalization and policing to succeed, city governments in these regions will need to provide more services, hold police accountable for their actions, and extend representation to low-income residents.
The confrontations of the coming decades will test the capacity of some urban governments. Agriculture is highly dependent on and Energy Nexus accessibility of adequate sources of water as well as on energy-rich fertilizers. Hydropower is a significant The increasing nexus among food, water, and energy— source of energy for some regions while new sources in combination with climate change—will have of energy—such as biofuels—threaten to exacerbate far-reaching effects on global development over the the potential for food shortages.
There is as much next years. In a tectonic shift, demand for these scope for negative trade-offs as there is the potential resources will grow substantially owing to an increase for positive synergies. As we have discussed, an expanding The marketplace is also changing. Foreign direct investments by reduce transportation costs —could help expand state-owned enterprises—largely based in emerging needed resources.
Food and water security is being markets—have focused increasingly on mining, aggravated by changing weather conditions outside of quarrying, and petroleum. Overall, commodities are expected norms. Demand for food is set to rise by more the wherewithal to avoid food and water shortages than 35 percent by , but global productivity gains without massive help from the outside. The questions have fallen from 2. The world has becomes more effective, the extent to which consumed more food than it has produced in seven of technologies mitigate resource challenges, and the last eight years.
Currently, no billion cubic meters BCM in , 40 percent above effective international frameworks exist for dealing current sustainable water supplies.
Agriculture, which with export controls, which often exacerbate food accounts for approximately 3, bcm, or just under shortages.
Increased promotion of food imports can 70 percent of global water withdrawals today, will help water-scarce countries to reduce pressure on their water sources. This , , and More Extreme Weather Flows in the Nile, Tigris-Euphrates, Niger, Amazon, Empirical evidence alone—without reference to and Mekong river basins have been diminished climate models—indicates that a general warming by droughts that have persisted during the past trend is affecting weather and ecosystems, causing decade.
Although weather patterns in these regions increasing impacts on humans. Recent weather has are dominated by natural variability, these persistent been characterized by an increase in the frequency droughts are consistent with the expected effects of extreme weather events—floods, droughts, of warming from increased greenhouse gas tornadoes, glacial lake outbreaks, extreme coastal concentrations in the atmosphere.
Observations show that Arctic summer sea According to the March Intergovernmental ice is diminishing in area and volume faster than Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report any models predicted and could vanish earlier than on Managing the Risks of Extreme Eventsa, the original predictions of Changes are climate change is reinforcing extreme weather, also occurring in the major ice shelves Greenland making it more intense.
Although the number of and Antarctica that were unforeseen even five cyclones probably will not increase by , the years ago. Future rates of change are currently destructive power of tropical storms will intensify. The key unknown Antarctica Ice Shelf. With this melting, scientists is whether improved disaster risk-management now estimate that sea-level rise will be 1 meter or measures will be adopted to effectively cope with more by the end of the century and the rate will these changing conditions by Observed and Pacific small-island states.
Recent scientific work shows that doubling of greenhouse gases by mid-century. About 40 as well as western Central Asia, southern Europe, percent of humanity lives in or near an international southern Africa and the US Southwest.
In places such river basin; over of these basins are shared by as Algeria and Saudi Arabia, precipitation by is more than two countries, increasing the dependencies forecast to decline by 4. Based on current trajectories, the forecast to decline by Average temperature change will be population will live in areas with severe water stress.
Economic growth in developing countries has led to In the Andes, glacial meltwater supports river flow and greater demands for a meat-based diet. The demand water supply for tens of millions of people during the for meat places extra pressures on the grain market— long dry season. Many small glaciers, e. The amount of water required to produce decades, adversely affecting people and ecosystems.
In addition to Pakistan depend upon glacier meltwater from the population increases, rapid urbanization will increase Hindu Kush and Himalaya Mountain regions. Biofuels also drive demand for Food supply will be strongly influenced by the agricultural commodities; percent of the US corn availability of land and water as well as the use of crop is diverted to fuels in a given year.
Given that agriculture uses 70 percent of global freshwater resources and livestock The most important short-term driver of crop supplies farming uses a disproportionate share of this, water is weather. Of course, favorable weather can boost management will become critical to long-term food harvest outputs, but poor weather or large-scale security.
However, water management practices— weather-related disruptions can deal a serious setback. The world is already farming its most productive land. Climate change impacts on food and water availability Given the limited availability of new agricultural land, will vary widely by region and probably will be more improving crop efficiency will become especially limited in the period out to than in the decades important to meeting global food needs.
High-growth after that. In the medium-term, atmospheric carbon economies in South and East Asia are expected to rise is expected to boost carbon fertilization and account for two-thirds of the increase in fertilizer thereby crop yields; however, the impact of climate use during the next five years.
In poorer countries, change on extreme weather events see box on page underutilization of fertilizer due to low crop prices has 32 probably will offset the positive effect on farming.
Much of the decline in precipitation decreasing world food prices, which has already will occur in the Middle East and northern Africa, reversed itself, may have come to an end, with repercussions for consumers, especially poor ones. Tighter markets will result in higher could decrease the need to irrigate other land.
This prices and increased price volatility but not necessarily takes a disproportionately high amount of pressure in a fundamental shortage of food. Continued reliance off of water resources. The risk of failing to achieve on maize as a biofuel feedstock will also increase the increased crop productivity therefore could have a potential for volatility.
A stable supply of agricultural commodities to meet global food security needs and ensure trade flows Cereal production in China and India faces significant can be achieved through supply-side management challenges from environmental stresses relating to practices to boost crop production—including new water scarcity, soil depletion, climate change, and technologies—to mitigate the potentially negative pressures on land availability from urbanization.
Both impacts of climate change. China, particularly, is investing heavily in could derail that outcome. These include extreme agricultural technology and productivity.
China and weather-related disruptions from unmitigated climate India are unlikely to abandon their efforts to achieve change, prolonged periods of poor management grain self-sufficiency through However, by , of water and soil, and inadequate use of modern demographic pressures and increasing environmental agricultural technologies and fertilizer. If one or more constraints may force both countries to increase of these factors came into play, a second, higher-risk imports, potentially triggering a significant price runup outcome would emerge in which food production on international markets.
Such a development would create shortages that could have The primary consequence of rising prices for dire geopolitical, social, and economic repercussions.
Although Increasing agricultural productivity in Africa would rich countries will also feel the pinch, the share of present a significant opportunity to boost and diversify food spending in low-income households in poorer global production and address regional poverty and countries is far greater, and these families will be food security.
However, agricultural productivity affected to a greater extent. As a result, food-price in Africa will require major changes even to avoid inflation probably will fuel social discontent over shortages. Unlike Asia and South America, which have other economic issues such as low wages and achieved significant improvements in production per poor governance. Many African states have poor enabling environments Wheat is likely to exhibit particularly high for agricultural development, including lack of price volatility.
Significant production occurs in sufficient rural infrastructure and transportation to get water-stressed and climate-vulnerable regions in seeds and fertilizer from the ports inland, and weak China, India, Pakistan, and Australia, suggesting governance. Even a fairly marginal improvement in markets will remain tight and vulnerable to harvest food supply chain management could translate into a shocks, including disease.
In Technology is perhaps the most important wild addition to export curbs, these countries have card to ensuring global food security. Crop more robust balance sheets to provide and maintain yield improvements due to better agricultural subsidies and domestic price controls and to use practices and technological improvements have monetary policy tools to control inflation with more accounted for nearly 78 percent of the increase efficacy than smaller, less developed states.
China, in crop production between and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others have been buying For more on possible future technological up overseas farming land. This trend will probably advances, see pages Wheat rust was largely eliminated by the genetic stock of the Green Experts are virtually certain that demand for energy Revolution, but it reappeared in Uganda in , will rise dramatically—about 50 percent—over spread to Kenya and Ethiopia, jumped to Iran the next years largely in response to rapid in , was confirmed in South Africa in , economic growth in the developing world.
In Kenya, it destroyed one fourth of the global production through , driven primarily crop. The lesser biological diversity of wheat by a combination of OPEC production increases and now than before the Green Revolution could larger unconventional sources.
The main or reference make wheat rust a greater threat now than then. Much of this increased production—and recent optimism—derives from unconventional oil and gas poor countries, such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Djibouti, being developed in North America.
The scale-up of and Sudan. For this set of countries, the primary two technologies, horizontal drilling and hydraulic line of defense to stem food-price inflation will be to fracturing, see box on page 37 is driving this new maintain, or, if necessary, expand existing subsidies energy boom.
Producers have long known shale on basic foodstuffs. Lacking the means economically to food prices down. Moreover, poor import-dependent unlock the massive amounts of hydrocarbon in the countries are not in a position to undertake overseas source rock, producers devoted their attention to the investments to secure greater crop outputs elsewhere.
Once the industry discovered how to combine hydraulic fracturing and horizontal Large emerging markets such as China, India, and drilling, the vast gas resources trapped in shale Russia—all of which are likely to see continuing deposits became accessible.
In a Global Trends Increased their environmental impact. Poor well construction oil production and the shale gas revolution could yield and cementing, wastewater management and other such independence.
US production of shale gas has above-ground risks will continue to cause accidents. US has sufficient natural gas to meet seismic risks. Seismic activity can affect well integrity domestic needs for decades to come, and potentially and construction, increasing the chances of methane substantial global exports.
Service companies are entering drinking water supplies. A tighter regulatory environment—which is beginning to Shale oil production in the US is still in its early happen in some US states—could also close loopholes stages, and its full potential remains uncertain, but and reassure public safety.
Nevertheless a major development is happening at a faster pace than shale drilling-related accident could cause a public backlash, gas. Preliminary estimates for range from halting the fracking activity in key production areas. By the , the US could emerge as a major will have significant positive ripple effect for the US energy exporter. Preliminary analysis of the impact on the US techniques to tap unconventional oil and gas economy suggests that these developments could Global Trends Additional crude oil of overall energy requirements.
The US would import less or no percent during the period. Hydropower crude oil from its current suppliers—Canada, Mexico, accounts for the overwhelming majority of renewables Saudi Arabia, Latin America and West Africa, forcing in this scenario, with wind and solar energy providing them to find alternative markets.
A dramatic expansion 5 and 2 percent contributions in respectively. Such a drop would solar power and wind power becoming much more take a heavy toll on many energy producers who are appreciable shares by —anywhere from 12 to 25 increasingly dependent on relatively high energy percent in the case of solar and 12 to 22 percent for prices to balance their budgets. Numbers for Other regions and countries have significant shale would be a lot smaller. Achieving to percent reserves.
European leaders are uncertain about the geology, political and public acceptability, environmental impact, and financial viability of shale gas in Europe.
For example, national authorization processes vary considerably by EU member-state and are generally stricter than for North America. The Polish Government sees shale gas as an important resource for diversification away from dependence on Russian gas and has been granting exploration licenses, while the French Government has banned hydraulic fracking. Nevertheless, another consequence of an increased reliance on relatively cleaner natural gas as a source of energy could be the lack of a major push on alternative fuels such as hydropower, wind, and solar energy.
Under most scenarios, alternative fuels continue Global Trends As a result, unconventional natural Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking—a new technology gas and oil have steadily become a larger portion to extract gas and oil from rock formations—is of the gas and oil production in the United States. The technology will enable the release reducing carbon dioxide emissions. During the negatively impact the environment through water last five years the combined technologies of contamination, seismic inducement, and methane fracking and horizontal drilling have been an energy emissions.
The fear of contamination of surface game-changer in the United States and other water and groundwater during site preparation, countries with large reserves of shale gas and oil. Since then regulatory agencies. In fracking well operators Current research is focused on finding better ways pump a fluid usually water mixed with propping to handle and treat the large quantities of water agent usually sand and a dozen or so chemical required and reducing significantly the amount of additives to control physical characteristics, such as water used in fracking by using wastewater or mine viscosity, pH, surface tension, and scale prevention, water, liquids other than water, or compressed at high pressure into a well bore.
The pressure gases, including potentially carbon dioxide. Existing creates fractures that propagate through the rock wastewater management techniques can mitigate formation; the propping holds the fractures open water contamination by recycling the produced to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous water or disposing it into deep wells.
Deep-well formation once the well has been completed. The latest fracturing operations use computer gas, are another environmental concern. Although simulations, modeling, and microseismic fracture the combustion of natural gas produces less carbon mapping as well as tilt sensors, which monitor rock dioxide than that of coal or fuel oil, that advantage deformations.
For fracking to be most efficient, could be obviated by fugitive emissions of methane the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling, during drilling, completion, and operation of an a technique that became standard practice in the unconventional gas well. If these emissions are kept s in oil and gas wells. How the game-changers sketched below evolve and interact with each other and with the megatrends will determine what kind of transformed world we will inhabit in In this chapter, we drill down on six key game-changers and their potential impacts: Will divergences among players with different economic interests and global volatility result in a worldwide economic breakdown and collapse?
Or will the development of multiple growth centers lead to increased resiliency in the global economic order? Will current governments and international institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change instead of being overwhelmed by it?
Will rapid changes and shifts in power lead to more intrastate and interstate conflicts? Will regional spillover, especially in the Middle East and South Asia, cause global instability?
Will technological breakthroughs be developed in time to boost economic productivity and solve the problems caused by the strain on natural resources and climate change as well as chronic disease, aging populations, and rapid urbanization? Will the US be able to work with new partners to reinvent the international system, carving out new roles in an expanded world order? To avoid such an Global Economy outcome, the rising powers will need to consider implementing wide-ranging changes to political and The international economy will most likely continue social institutions.
Finally, the transition to a more to be characterized by various regional and national multipolar global economy brings its own risks, economies moving at significantly different speeds—a which are likely to be particularly pronounced as the pattern reinforced by the financial crisis. In economy, in particular, begins to slow, the contrast the interim, international management of the system between the current higher growth of the emerging could falter as players with diverging interests fail to economies and the slow or stagnating recoveries in the cooperate with one another.
Historical studies increased volatility will result in a global breakdown indicate that recessions involving financial crises tend and collapse or whether the development of multiple to be deeper and require recoveries that take twice as growth centers will lead to increased resiliency. Future long. Previous episodes of deleveraging have term destabilizing effects.
The report concludes that this pattern is likely to continue. For the West, the challenge will the consequences of low economic growth that lasts be to ensure that the recent slow or stagnating growth longer than a decade. For rising states org ; C. Reinhart and V. Even the slowly enhances fragility of the social and political growing labor force may not global economy.
Absent fabric in many Western be fully employed because of a hegemonic power or countries, leading to external competition, particularly strong global governance potentially destabilizing among low-skill workers. One mechanisms, risks effects. Emerging In the coming decades, To avoid the middle-income trap, The health of the global Powers not only will the big China will need to transition to economy will increasingly emerging powers like a more consumer-driven and be linked to how well the China, India, and Brazil knowledge-intensive economy, developing world does— make relative economic involving difficult political and more so than the traditional gains, but Colombia, social reforms.
India faces West. The assumption of Mexico, Indonesia, similar problems and traps more global responsibilities South Korea, Turkey, and accompanying rapid growth, but in both political and potentially Nigeria also New Delhi benefits from having economic spheres by will make their marks.
China and India are global economic outlook. If past the accumulated debt. If they do, these countries Japan more but will have significant effects on the will compete with more expensive skilled labor in United States as well. However, such a bonus will boosting automation. However, low economic growth rates, external competition, particularly at the low-skilled rising pension liabilities, and debt crises in European end. Western countries are likely to continue suffering countries and the US place increased pressure on from increasing global labor competition—a trend already strained budgets.
With borrowing constrained that began in the s. A recent Oxford Economics because of high debts, these countries probably will study estimates that another one billion workers not be able to afford to finance generous welfare from developing countries are likely to be added to systems unless they can significantly increase the global labor pool in the next several decades.
Labor force studies show that the twin impacts of Reducing borrowing risks political blowback, complicating and lengthening efforts to undertake a The source of this information is the Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Papers No , Stephen G. Cecchetti, M. On the other hand, failure Demographically, the United States is in the best to take budgetary action risks the likelihood of more position of all the major developed powers and some abrupt rises in government bond yields at medium and developing ones like China with a birth rate close long maturities.
Economists also worry that EU financial management. The current mode of crisis declining educational base is not seen as adequately management is unsustainable over the long term. In the coming decade, we will aging and dwindling population is putting the probably witness not only relative economic gains society in a bind, severely undercutting its long-term by China, India, and Brazil, but also the increasing growth potential. The combination of a long-term importance of emerging regional players such as deteriorating fiscal situation with a dramatically aging Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, South and declining population—roughly one elderly person Korea, Mexico, and Turkey.
In Germany the population ages will decline from 54 to 47 million between and The health of the global economy will be increasingly and, in Japan, from International Economics, August 12, The population, a pending youth dearth is on the horizon world economy no longer depends on US consumers for China.
University applications have declined for the past two years. The slower growth— some of the biggest hurdles to achieving that goal.
Hong Kong and Japan will recently peaked at 72 percent, will decline to about lead at just 15 percent of the population between ages 15 and 29, followed closely by Qatar, South Korea, Malta, Germany, Bosnia, and Austria all 68 percent by However, the slower growth will mean An economically difficult transition could mean an downward pressure on per capita income growth. China faces the prospect of being trapped in Although the leadership and much of the middle class middle-income status.
There is also the its economy up a notch. In the next 20 explode in conflict and confrontation. As with China, years, Chinese firms will probably need to go outside a sharp economic downturn—particularly propelled China to obtain the next level of technological and by a political or military crisis—could quickly have managerial innovation and sophistication.
To do so, broader regional and global effects. China will have to engage in foreign direct investment in other countries— a logical step at this stage of India—in contrast to China—will remain a relatively development and possibly the only way for China to youthful country, continuing to benefit from a move up the value chain.
The share of its population ages infrastructure, housing, property, and manufacturing will continue to rise from about 65 percent now plants and equipment will raise global investment to perhaps 69 percent by Emerging market rate combined with a greater proportion of dependent countries, with their faster growth rates and higher seniors will not begin to create an economic burden saving rates, will become the most important source before To maximize its advantage from the greater the increasing investment demands.
This gap will result in upward improvements, particularly in countering corruption; pressure on long-term interest rates, particularly in and undertake large-scale infrastructure program to regions without adequate savings. Such a secular trend keep pace with rapid urbanization and the needs of a would have negative implications for investments more advanced economy. The Asian Development Bank indicated in a reporta that Some experts have compared the upcoming decline based on current trends Asia could become 90 of US economic weight to the late 19th century when percent dependent on imported oil by Rapid economic dominance by one player—Britain—receded urbanization also enhances the vulnerabilities of Asian into multipolarity.
Other resemblances include countries. The average growth unlike Tokyo, Seoul, and Singapore are decreasing, rate of the leading country, the United Kingdom, in creating urban sprawl, which is spurring growth in the 19th century was not high, while the growth rate car ownership, higher energy use, and higher costs of the rival—the US—was higher but variable.
Just as to provide utilities and transportation networks. Asian cities are vulnerable to the An added current complication are the differences severe weather connected to climate change, which over market liberalization and role of the state in the amplifies storm surges and flooding of low-lying areas. This is particularly the case for many of these coastal cities: Up to Bangkok, Yangon and Hai Phong.
Such an explosion will With greater demand for products, economists global currency the dollar may remain, but alongside worry that the number of bottlenecks will increase others. The absence of a clear hegemonic economic markedly and that supply of resources and goods will power—as represented by an unrivalled global face at least temporary constraints.
This could mean currency—could in turn add to volatility as in the late that the durations of business cycles will become 19th century. The various players pursued their special significantly shorter and that they will be less smooth.
We have a stronger global financial system have accounted for three-quarters of for dealing with stresses than we did in earlier eras. However, the degree consumers. Such an explosion will to which the emerging powers would view these mean a scramble for raw materials and originally Western-established bodies with legitimacy manufactured goods. Effective global governance would be necessary to The current institutional framework is not likely to avoid such tensions escalating and to ensure against withstand the unleashing of a major conflict between risks of mercantilism and protectionism infecting the the big economic players.
Despite all the economic global economy. Any economic breakdowns explore in a later section, in the next couple decades in key countries such as China would be likely to spur conflict involving great powers is not inconceivable, political disruption, which would complicate recovery but if such a conflict does occur, it almost certainly and potentially limit the ability of others to help.
Interest rates may increase with imbalances between easily available supplies and growing demand of raw Finally, we are assuming that the new normal—albeit materials. Upward movement in interest rates may also more fragile and volatile than the Great Moderation be pushed by a decline in global savings capacities as of the pre period—would be based on active rising middle classes in the developing world consume support of the emerging powers. As described above, more and aging populations in the developed world one could envisage mercantilist and protectionist begin to draw down their savings.
Some economists pressures growing to break down globalization, also expect growing incentives for investors to particularly if coupled with rising political tensions diversify. With long-run growth trends diverging, the with neighbors and rivals. As in the Global Trends Both social science theory and recent history—the Color Revolutions and the Whether governments and international institutions Arab Spring—support the idea that with maturing will be able to adapt fast enough to harness change age structures, greater educational levels, and rising instead of being overwhelmed by it is a key question incomes, political liberalization and democracy for future developments.
The rapid advances in are nurtured and advance. However, the extended information, communications, and other technologies transition to full democracy is much more stable and argue for publics and institutions that will be better long-lasting when youth bulges begin to decline and able to tackle global and regional challenges. If the incomes are higher.
Challenges associated with instability: First, studies have shown that countries managing increasing urban conglomerations will tax moving through the mid-range between autocracy and governing structures, but such challenges also will democracy have a proven record of high instability. However, is highly inconsistent with their level of development the increasing number of players needed to solve in other spheres, particularly their economic levels, major transnational challenges will complicate tend to be less stable.
These same two risk factors decisionmaking. A growing number of diverse and apply to a large number of the countries in the world. However, the The greatest number of countries in the mid-range increasing number of powers needed to in is likely to be in Sub-Saharan Africa 23 of 45 solve a major transnational challenge will countries , followed by Asia 17 of 59 total, including complicate decisionmaking.
It measures along a point scale regime authority The governance gap will be most pronounced at the characteristics and transitions for all independent states with greater domestic level and driven by the rapid political and than , total population and covers the years — US and other major nations.
Tokyo—which and ORNL officials—were asked to distinguish is at a low elevation—is the largest global city at among various categories of natural disasters: The travel time for the tsunami disasters with short recurrence intervals. You can decide which is the stronger influence:. Nice China cooperation scenario boosting, but a bit overtly obvious. This report in some ways shows significant Intelligence weaknesses in the US Intelligence establishment and the decades old, dangerous, dumbing-down for the actual Policy makers, which did not work well in the Iraq debacle and will fare far worse in larger global issues in the coming decades.
But very well done word-smithing and communications design. Perhaps you find it too disturbing to believe that this might be an honest assessment of the state of the world by the NIC? If the world was so simple I would agree with the assessment, but there are worse scenarios than what is mentioned and what is disturbing is that I honestly think it is not on the NIC radar.
There are western-centric and economic-centric blind-spots which run so deep in the report, that they become precursors to Black Swan scenarios. Have you been to China?
You really have to see, smell, taste and touch these places to really understand just how serious it is. There was so much trade in BC that in India they were minting fake Greek coins. Even Alexander was following very old trade routes all the way to Bactria and the Indo-HellenicPersian culture, before and during the Romans was and still is in some ways, thriving trade-wise.
It works. My point is that brute, unethical Capitalism has always been around and should be nothing to be proud of. Ethical Capitalism which includes ethical regulation of the economy and economic practices… is what has been lost in the West. In a high state of hyper-capitalism as opposed to ethical-capitalism. It also creates other blind spots which are related to this base-type of human social parasitism mentality and that is one of the things which will bite you on the ass in the end.
India is now coming up to theirs I think. Pakistan too. Maybe China…juries out on that one.. Eisenhower also tried to sound the alarm,. Anyway, if the issues in the report were the only ones, I would not be worried or disturbed at all…: But the worst dangers are due to significant blind spots, which are prevalent in the report.
I would love to read the publication, but I find it impossible to down load. Excellent initiative. You are commenting using your WordPress. You are commenting using your Google account. You are commenting using your Twitter account.
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